Montréal Canadiens at Chicago Blackhawks: game preview

Game dayFriday, October 23 · 8:00 PM ET · United Center · Meeting No. 661
Fair win probability · 8 US books, margin removed
at
Head-to-head
All-time meetings660Completed
2025-26 seriesMTL 2-0-0
Last 53-2Montréal
Puck drop8:00 PMOct 23 · ET
Head-to-head ↓
Scoring rates
3.40Goals for a game2.48
3.42Goals against a game3.64

Montréal left, Chicago right. 2026-27, leaning on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Totals ↓
The thesis

Montréal favored at 55.7%

Montréal finished last season 6th in the league with 106 points. Chicago finished 31st with 72, and the 2025-26 season series went MTL 2-0-0.

With the bookmaker margin removed, 8 US books price Chicago at 44.3% at home. Last season's table, adjusted for home ice, would put them at 33.5%.

Where the market disagrees with the table

Table: 33.5% CHIMarket: 44.3% CHI

Table probability uses 2025-26 points percentage (.439 vs .646) with home-ice advantage. The market rates Chicago 10.8 points higher than last season's table does.

Method
Head-to-head

Meeting number 661

Across 660 completed games, Montréal leads the head-to-head 418-216-26.

All-time record418-216-26Montréal's record in the series
Meetings played660This is number 661
2025-26 seriesMTL 2-0-0
Last 53-2Montréal
DateResultShotsPower playWinner
Dec 18, 2025CHI 1 – MTL 415–35CHI 0/2 · MTL 0/2MTL
Oct 11, 2025MTL 3 – CHI 228–22MTL 2/10 · CHI 1/4MTL
Apr 14, 2025CHI 4 – MTL 3 SO25–21CHI 2/3 · MTL 1/4CHI
Jan 3, 2025MTL 2 – CHI 440–26MTL 1/3 · CHI 1/3CHI
Dec 22, 2023MTL 5 – CHI 228–21MTL 0/3 · CHI 0/1MTL
Head-to-head finder

The table on each meeting night

DateMontréalChicago
Dec 22, 202315-13-5 · 35 pts18th10-21-1 · 21 pts30th
Jan 3, 202517-18-3 · 37 pts23rd13-24-2 · 28 pts32nd
Apr 14, 202539-31-11 · 89 pts19th24-46-11 · 59 pts31st
Oct 11, 20252-1-0 · 4 pts8th0-2-1 · 1 pts29th
Dec 18, 202518-12-4 · 40 pts11th13-15-6 · 32 pts28th

League rank after that night's games; a longer bar is a higher place. On Dec 22, 2023, Montréal was 18th in the league and Chicago 30th. By Dec 18, 2025 it was 11th and 28th.


Streaks

Montréal has scored 3+ in 4 straight; Jacob Fowler has won 3 straight decisions

Active streaks for both teams and their players, entering this game.

MontréalStreakIn runTonightLast 10 games
Montréal CanadiensOver 5.5 streak430 G51110717977
Montréal Canadiens3+ goal streak415 GF354214443
Noah Dobson3+ shot streak312 SOG0112212534
Jacob FowlerWin streak3—LWWW

Streak = games in a row entering this game (goalies count starts; skater streaks carry over from last season). In run = what the streak has produced. Tonight = the chance it goes on tonight, implied by the venue prices (average), where a venue prices it: a point, goal, assist or 2+ points, or the team win. Last 10 = the last 10 regular-season games, green when it counted. Every active streak: player streaks, team streaks.


Where the shots come from · last 5 meetings

Montréal out-attempted Chicago 322 to 265

Every attempt from the last meetings, both teams shooting right.

Montréal Canadiens

322 att · 152 on goal · 17 G · 11.2%
Crease35 att · 5 G
Slot133 att · 9 G
Wing101 att · 0 G
Point45 att · 1 G
Neutral zone8 att · 2 G

Chicago Blackhawks

265 att · 109 on goal · 12 G · 11.0%
Crease27 att · 4 G
Slot100 att · 7 G
Wing99 att · 1 G
Point33 att · 0 G
Neutral zone6 att · 0 G
GoalOn goalMissedBlocked

Expected goals

Montréal has created the better chances, last 10 games

Shot quality both ways: expected goals weigh every unblocked attempt by its chance of scoring. Finishing above zero means more goals than the chances.

MontréalChicago
3.36xG for per game2.61
3.35xG against per game3.64
50.1%xG share41.8%
−2.3FinishingGoals minus expected goals−2.5
−3.9GoaltendingExpected goals against minus goals allowed−3.2

This season: 9 games for Montréal, 9 for Chicago.

Every team’s xG →


Special teams

Power play and penalty kill, season and series

This season's rates first, then 2025-26 and the last meetings between the two. Power-play chances are counted from the penalty log with coincidental minors canceled; faceoffs are each club's wins over draws taken.

All bars share one scale · 0–100%SeasonLast meetings

Montréal

Power play · 2026-2713.8%
Power play · 2025-2623.1% · 10th
Power play · last 5 meetings4/22 · 18.2%
Penalty kill · 2026-2778.4%
Penalty kill · 2025-2678.2% · 18th
Faceoffs · 2026-2752.5% · 279/531
Drawn · 2026-2729 (3.22/gm)
Drawn · last meetings22 (4.40/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-2737 (4.11/gm)
PP goals · last meetings4

Chicago

Power play · 2026-2712.5%
Power play · 2025-2616.9% · 29th
Power play · last 5 meetings4/13 · 30.8%
Penalty kill · 2026-2774.1%
Penalty kill · 2025-2683.6% · 2nd
Faceoffs · 2026-2743.0% · 221/514
Drawn · 2026-2724 (2.67/gm)
Drawn · last meetings13 (2.60/gm)
Shorthanded · 2026-2727 (3.00/gm)
PP goals · last meetings4

Skaters

Nick Suzuki has 8 points in the last 5 meetings

Each club's top three forwards and defensemen by points this season, with 2025-26 one tap away, then who has produced in the last meetings.

PlayerGPGAPP/GP
14Nick Suzuki957121.33
13Cole Caufield96280.89
16Anton Frondell91560.67
59Tyler Bertuzzi92350.56
Points leaders
PlayerGPGAPP/GP
48Lane Hutson92791.00
53Noah Dobson90220.22
44Wyatt Kaiser90330.33
6Sam Rinzel81120.25
Defensemen stats

Nick Suzuki vs Chicago · game by game

See all: Nick Suzuki vs Chicago · game by game →
DateVenueGAPSOGTOI
Dec 18, 2025home112217:23
Oct 11, 2025away033221:56
Apr 14, 2025home000226:41
Jan 3, 2025away011221:53
Dec 22, 2023away112118:11
Last 5 meetings8 P2 G, 6 A · 9 SOG
Next best6 PCole Caufield, MTL
2026-27 season12 P9 GP · 5 G
Blank vs CHI1 of 5
Full game log

Goaltending

Samuel Montembeault has started most of these meetings

Samuel Montembeault played 3 of the last 5 meetings with Chicago, with a .877 save percentage. Starters are confirmed on game day.

Expected startersAn estimate until the teams confirmEvery game tonight →
Expected starter#32 Jacob Fowler

2026-27: 4 GP · .900 SV% · GSAx +1.4

Also possible: Dobes 26% · Montembeault 15%

Expected starter#30 Spencer Knight
  • Started 7 of 9 this season
  • 56 of the team's last 82 starts

2026-27: 7 GP · .888 SV% · GSAx +0.3

Also possible: Soderblom 31%

MTL · 10-8-4 in 2025-26 Chance to start · 15%

SV% · 2025-26.87225 GP · 3.43 GAA
vs Chicago.8773 app · 73 SA · 9 GA
GSAx · 2025-26−2.923 starts
vs CHIVenueSAGASV%
Oct 11, 2025away222.909
Apr 14, 2025home253.880
Jan 3, 2025away264.846

Also on the roster, 2026-27: Jakub Dobes .847 (5 GP) · Jacob Fowler .900 (4 GP)

Full game log

Chicago crease

CHI · 2026-27 Expected: Knight · 69%

Spencer Knight.8887 GP · 3-4-0 · GSAx +0.3
Arvid Soderblom.8202 GP · 0-2-0 · GSAx −2.6

Two goalies used against Montréal

#vs MTLAppsSAGASV%
30Spencer Knight2626.903
40Arvid Soderblom2615.918

Totals

A total in line with the numbers

Sportsbooks set the total at 6.5. Both teams' scoring rates point to 6.5. The last 5 meetings averaged 6.0 goals and went over 2 times.

Goals in the last 5 meetings

Dec 18, 20255 · CHI 1–4 MTL
Oct 11, 20255 · MTL 3–2 CHI
Apr 14, 20257 · CHI 4–3 MTL
Jan 3, 20256 · MTL 2–4 CHI
Dec 22, 20237 · MTL 5–2 CHI

Bar length is total goals, colored by the winner; the red mark is tonight's line of 6.5.

Scoring rates

Team26-27 GF26-27 GA25-26 GF25-26 GA
Montréal3.333.783.453.12
Chicago2.334.002.603.35

Goals for and against per game. The estimate averages each team’s scoring with the other’s goals allowed, and leans on 2025-26 until a team has played 20 games.

Scoring rates suggest6.5Goals in this game
Last 5 meetings6.0Goals per game
Line · over 6.52 of 5Meetings over the line
Books at the line7Posting 6.5

Prediction markets

Montréal favored on both sides of the border

US and Canadian books are kept apart because they are separate markets with different books and prices.

Moneyline by market

SelectionBestAvgFair
United States · 8 books
Montréal57¢58¢55.7%
Chicago46¢46¢44.3%
Canada · 3 books
Montréal59¢59¢55.4%
Chicago47¢48¢44.6%

Snapshot Oct 22, 4:53 PM ET

Lines on the board

Total 6.57 books
Puck line CHI +1.57 books
Puck line MTL -1.57 books
Total 6.01 book
Partner prices · trade this game

Sportsbook prices are shown as implied cents (100 ÷ decimal odds) so they compare directly with prediction-market prices. Fair = margin removed. Snapshot Oct 23, 3:42 AM ET. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure


Game lines

Prediction markets price over 6.5 at 48%

Total goals, the spread and each team's total as the venues price them, next to a rate from both teams' scoring. A line shows when at least two venues price it.

LineImplied · venue avgFrom statsKalshiOpen →PolymarketOpen →ProphetXOpen →
Over 3.54+ goals in the game87%89%88¢Not listedBest89¢
Over 4.55+ goals in the game80%77%80¢Not listedBest80¢
Over 5.56+ goals in the game58%63%59¢Not listedBest59¢
Over 6.57+ goals in the game48%47%48¢Not listedBest49¢
Over 7.58+ goals in the game27%32%28¢Not listedBest28¢
Over 8.59+ goals in the game19%20%20¢Not listedBest20¢
Over 9.510+ goals in the game9.2%12%Best10¢Not listed11¢

Snapshot Oct 23, 3:42 AM ET. Each price is for the line as written: the other side (under, +1.5) costs about 100 minus it. "From stats" is a Poisson rate from each team's goals for and against per game (this season, leaning on 2025-26 for the first 20 games); it knows nothing about overtime, empty nets or tonight's lineups. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure


Player markets

Cole Caufield is the likeliest to score a point, at 70%

What the venues price for individual players in this game, next to a rate from each player's scoring this season and last.

PlayerImplied · venue avgFrom statsKalshiOpen →PolymarketOpen →ProphetXOpen →
Cole CaufieldMontréal70%66%Not listedNot listed78¢
Lane HutsonMontréal64%62%Not listedNot listed68¢
Connor BedardChicago63%66%Not listedNot listed69¢
Juraj SlafkovskýMontréal62%58%Not listedNot listed66¢
Patrick KaneChicago54%56%Not listedNot listed59¢
Tyler BertuzziChicago49%51%Not listedNot listed54¢
Roman KantserovChicago49%28%Not listedNot listed54¢
Oliver KapanenMontréal48%36%Not listedNot listed54¢
Chris KreiderMontréal47%47%Not listedNot listed52¢
Anton FrondellChicago45%51%Not listedNot listed50¢

Snapshot Oct 23, 3:42 AM ET. "From stats" is a Poisson rate from his points, goals or assists per game over this season and last combined; it knows nothing about tonight's lineup. "Best" is the cheapest price to buy Yes after venue fees. Prices are snapshots taken every 15 minutes (season futures hourly), not live. Prediction markets carry risk of loss and are not available in every jurisdiction. 18+/21+ where applicable. How markets work · Affiliate disclosure


Team news

9 on the injury lists

Montréal · injuries

Bryce PickfordUndisclosedIRReturnOct 31
Florian XhekajLower BodyIRReturnOct 31
Ivan DemidovLower BodyIRReturnOct 31
Lucas CondottaUndisclosedIRReturnOct 31
Mike MathesonLower BodyDay-to-dayReturnTBD
Nick SuzukiUpper BodyOutReturnNov 18
Sam MontembeaultLower BodyIRReturnOct 25

Chicago · injuries

Andrew MangiapaneLower BodyIRReturnTBD
Bowen ByramUpper BodyDay-to-dayReturnTBD
Oct 22 · MTL

Recalled F Owen Beck from Laval (AHL).

Oct 21 · MTL

Assigned D David Reinbacher and C Owen Beck to Laval (AHL).

Oct 17 · MTL

Placed LW Florian Xhekaj on injured reserve.

Oct 18 · CHI

Assigned C Dominic Toninato to Rockford (AHL).

Oct 13 · CHI

Assigned F Nick Lardis to Rockford (AHL).

Oct 10 · CHI

Placed G Sam Montembeault and F Oliver Kapanen on injured reserve.

Injury report
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Updated after every final · Bookmaker odds captured Oct 22, 4:53 PM ET